Have you felt the silence? Yes. There was a hush in the markets. Summer sales were down 30%. Mortgage rates added to the usual seasonal slowness. See showing chart below.
People stand at Centre Field wringing their hands looking both ways. Economic commentators predict house market doom. Some of these dire predictions are oozing over from the southern border. The banks and regulations are not the same. How will the Toronto housing market fare? Semi-detached properties around $1.5M are still receiving multiple offers. In August, approximately 100,000 people came to Ontario. This influx is steady with no sign of slowing.
A recent bank survey (see the chart below) predicts twice as many defaults on loans compared to 2022 numbers. According to an article published in the Financial Post on August 31, CIBC, not on this chart, is predicting bad loan increases of 203%.
While The Bank of Canada held the rates this last time around, 60% of economists think they will raise them ¼ point in October. This affects the housing market, but it also heavily impacts the carrying costs of other household loans for cars, furniture, renovations, and families’ contingency funding.
In Toronto, the new council has implemented increases in land transfer taxes for properties over $3M. These will begin in January 2024. As always, the Toronto taxes are in addition to provincial land transfer taxes. See the Toronto chart below.
The current conditions are unprecedented and listings are increasing dramatically.