The Mad Hatter’s Real Estate Party

Over the final weeks of December and into the new year the experts producing economic reports have been overwhelmingly grim.  On the topic of real estate, they did not take into account the great behind the scenes activity in the market.

On the one hand,

we should all be wringing our hands and drowning in tears,

on the other,

the Queen of Hearts is overseeing the baking of cakes.

DEMAND

Behind the scenes, people want to buy and sell.  The prime obstacles are limited supply and mortgage rates. They are concerned about the economic outlook, war, pandemic and even a big societal shift of our entire economy. The overwhelming reality, though, is that housing is not a luxury. It’s a need. It’s basic.  Rental prices are extremely high, so it’s not as though renting is an obviously better financial choice for a family who holds a large ready-to-go downpayment. Many do.

MORTGAGES

Lending rates have increased dramatically over the year – and another rate increase is very possible on the 26th of January.  This all comes  with promises they will be reduced in the near future.

The world is up and the world is down.

EXPERTS

TIFF MACKLEM/BENJAMIN TAL

On January 12th Benjamin Tal published an opinion via the Globe and Mail that was refreshing in its brevity and clarity. I only wonder if his timeline for an improved economy is too long.  Judging by the number of inquiries I’m receiving from buyers and sellers, I’m taking a tip from The Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem who advised us that individual models and data research may not apply to these usual times.  “You don’t get 8% inflation because one thing went wrong…surprises can combine and interact ..resulting in outsized affects”. Could that include a surprisingly fast recovery as much as an unusually protracted recession?

19:25  (video link) “Our monetary policy is working and once we get through this adjustment our economy can grow healthily with low inflation. That’s what lies ahead if we follow through…we will restore price stability for all Canadians.”

See him comment on interest rates 40:19 and a balanced housing market.

BALANCED MARKET

Unlike the buyer experience in the hot market, buyers now have time to make measured decisions. However, exceptional properties still attract heavy attention, so reason and passion need to be allowed their proper level of influence. It is important for a buyer to understand their personal comfort level with these two decision-making influencers.

Sellers need to consider the appeal of their house to buyers, and their realtor should be able to help them assess this. Pricing properly is key.

NEXT MOVE

If I was buying, I’d tell myself not to try to time the bottom of the market.  Since supply is so low, I’d be actively searching for my new home.  Finances, mortgage rates and the big world events need to be factored into a decision whether to make an offer – but getting out of the gate and into a knowledge building position seems wise.

Whether to sell, has its own complications. It’s quite often not just about the best price with many life choices involved.  Is a good price possible in today’s market?  Not for all, but depending on your property, the condition and style of your house, and location…yes.

And…then there is the question.

Is the great societal shift upon us?

More to come…